0xf124b87489cacf7da8167d0f6750649527299d72
0xf124b87489cacf7da8167d0f6750649527299d72
Wallet digest
Activity score
47/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
76
Open notional
$54.18
Total PnL
$-2.6K
Realised
$-0.07
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 76- NO
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by 10–20%?
54 shares @ 80.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$53.39
$10.59
- NO
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%?
51 shares @ 75.0¢·now 1.6¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.79
$-37.37
- NO
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on May 20?
78 shares @ 72.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-55.96
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 25?
74 shares @ 82.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 25, 2025$0.00
$-60.81
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 25?
73 shares @ 83.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 25, 2025$0.00
$-60.78
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?
69 shares @ 87.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 2, 2026$0.00
$-60.32
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 18?
68 shares @ 79.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 18, 2025$0.00
$-53.45
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 31?
67 shares @ 90.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-60.67
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on January 2?
66 shares @ 91.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 2, 2026$0.00
$-60.32
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 2?
66 shares @ 91.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 2, 2026$0.00
$-60.15
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?$52.36Jul 7, 16:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$54.98Jul 7, 16:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?$16.36Jul 6, 18:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?$10.18Jul 6, 12:05 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?$51.68Jul 6, 02:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?$43.80Jul 3, 19:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?$51.67Jul 3, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?$43.77Jul 3, 11:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?$34.37Jul 1, 18:19 UTC
- REDEEMMicrostrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30?$51.29Jul 1, 16:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?$23.42Jul 1, 12:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?$44.34Jun 30, 15:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$44.00Jun 30, 11:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?$44.00Jun 30, 11:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%?$48.26Jun 29, 18:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?$51.78Jun 29, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?$43.94Jun 29, 11:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?$54.96Jun 27, 18:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?$43.60Jun 27, 11:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June?$55.53Jun 26, 17:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $38.66
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 12, 21:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 7, 16:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.