0xf124b87489cacf7da8167d0f6750649527299d72
0xf124b87489cacf7da8167d0f6750649527299d72
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
78
Open notional
$228.78
Total PnL
$-2.5K
Realised
$-0.07
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 78- NO
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30?
51 shares @ 88.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$51.11
$5.99
- NO
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
51 shares @ 87.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$50.72
$6.44
- NO
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%?
51 shares @ 75.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$42.48
$4.32
- NO
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%?
48 shares @ 89.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$42.47
$-0.48
- NO
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by 10–20%?
54 shares @ 80.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$42.00
$-0.80
- NO
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on May 20?
78 shares @ 72.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-55.96
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 25?
74 shares @ 82.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 25, 2025$0.00
$-60.81
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 25?
73 shares @ 83.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 25, 2025$0.00
$-60.78
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?
69 shares @ 87.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 2, 2026$0.00
$-60.32
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 18?
68 shares @ 79.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 18, 2025$0.00
$-53.45
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%?$43.16Jun 23, 23:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%?$38.56Jun 23, 20:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by 10–20%?$43.16Jun 23, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?$12.39Jun 23, 11:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026?$47.85Jun 22, 18:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026?$43.47Jun 22, 11:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$44.53Jun 21, 09:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m?$29.45Jun 21, 07:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?$39.16Jun 19, 18:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?$26.69Jun 19, 11:00 UTC
- REDEEMMakerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?$38.07Jun 19, 07:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYMakerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?$26.23Jun 18, 12:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?$51.32Jun 17, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?$43.13Jun 17, 11:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?$34.30Jun 16, 11:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m?$50.29Jun 15, 21:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m?$44.46Jun 15, 08:34 UTC
- REDEEMFight to Go the Distance?$49.86Jun 15, 05:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYFight to Go the Distance?$44.06Jun 14, 23:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?$51.91Jun 14, 18:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $37.76
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 5, 20:49 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 23, 23:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.