Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June?
Probability
24¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-7.0pp
24h Vol
$2.9K
Liquidity
$5.7K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the figures of the most recent previous month with available dataTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 7pp over 24h
Now 24¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $5.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the figures of the most recent previous month with available dataTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.
Verification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 26, 06:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 508.3h
- 01:40SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
Price movement
-7.0pp over the last 24h, now 24¢.
Biggest hourly move: -17.5pp at Jun 1, 12:00 UTC (to 31¢).
Show top 8 of 42 hourly moves
- Jun 2, 17:00 UTC · -15.0pp → 31¢
- Jun 2, 16:00 UTC · -15.0pp → 31¢
- Jun 2, 00:00 UTC · -15.5pp → 31¢
- Jun 1, 23:00 UTC · -15.5pp → 31¢
- Jun 1, 17:00 UTC · -17.5pp → 31¢
- Jun 1, 15:00 UTC · -17.5pp → 31¢
- Jun 1, 14:00 UTC · -17.5pp → 31¢
- Jun 1, 12:00 UTC · -17.5pp → 31¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for June 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for June 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release. The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for June 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on June 26, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered. Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June?"?
As of Fri, 05 Jun 2026 01:40:02 GMT, YES is priced at 24% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -7.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 26, 2026 (2026-06-26T06:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$2.9K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $11.4K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $5.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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