Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30?
Probability
11¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+3.0pp
24h Vol
$11.76
Liquidity
$650.94
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 01:03SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 11¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 12¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 6¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 7¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 6¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 6¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if MicroStrategy is removed from either the MSCI World Index or the MSCI USA Index at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” If MicroStrategy is transferred between indexes (e.g., from MSCI World to another MSCI index), that will also count as a removal for the purposes of this market. An official MSCI announcement of removal or transfer will be sufficient for a ‘Yes’ resolution. The resolution source will be official MSCI communication or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (10.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).