0xf1335b8132c37d22054370277239237567299964
0xf1335b8132c37d22054370277239237567299964
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
25
Open notional
$24.00
Total PnL
$-52.61
Realised
$4.99
Win rate
67%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 25- YES
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
21 shares @ 1.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$21.00
$20.76
- NO
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
3 shares @ 57.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$3.00
$1.27
- YES
Bitcoin above $117.4K on August 17 at 8PM ET?
1234 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2025$0.00
$-1.23
- YES
Maduro trial scheduled by January 31?
300 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-6.80
- LIONS
Lions vs. Vikings
100 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 25, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
UFC 319: Will Du Plessis vs. Chimaev end in a draw?
100 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2025$0.00
$-0.30
- YES
Will anyone say "China" during Apple launch event on September 9?
44 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 9, 2025$0.00
$-19.36
- YES
Will Bank of America or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
40 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Citigroup or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
34 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$0.00
$-0.76
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 50-51°F on December 29?
30 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 29, 2025$0.00
$-1.20
Recent activity
- REDEEMNothing Ever Happens: US Strike Edition$4.97May 13, 13:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026?$6.45May 13, 13:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on week 1?$8.33May 13, 13:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?$12.95May 13, 13:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1?$26.03May 13, 13:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or higher on January 8?$30.00May 13, 13:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026?$0.85Jan 9, 01:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or higher on January 8?$6.60Jan 7, 16:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026?$0.50Jan 7, 12:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or higher on January 8?$3.50Jan 7, 11:59 UTC
- TRADESELLNew "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? $11.00Jan 6, 20:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? $0.94Jan 6, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYMaduro trial scheduled by January 31?$4.40Jan 6, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYMaduro trial scheduled by January 31?$2.40Jan 6, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? $1.24Jan 6, 17:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? $1.24Jan 6, 17:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? $3.61Jan 6, 15:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? $3.61Jan 6, 15:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? $0.36Jan 6, 15:43 UTC
- TRADESELLNothing Ever Happens: US Strike Edition$2.69Jan 6, 07:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $4.43
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 30, 13:18 UTC
- Last active
- May 13, 13:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.