Insistent-Voice
0xf1f9a438f2697381b4ac8eb283d6f4dd772d1245
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
34
Open notional
$33.2K
Total PnL
$-454.08
Realised
$-131.72
Win rate
83%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 34- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
11015 shares @ 62.8¢·now 57.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$6.3K
$-581.50
- YES
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
180678 shares @ 3.0¢·now 2.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.4K
$-970.06
- YES
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
29232 shares @ 4.5¢·now 13.2¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$3.8K
$2.5K
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
6452 shares @ 40.1¢·now 46.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$3.0K
$383.00
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
6137 shares @ 40.1¢·now 43.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$2.7K
$209.01
- YES
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
28491 shares @ 2.7¢·now 9.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.6K
$1.9K
- YES
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
3761 shares @ 48.6¢·now 61.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$2.3K
$465.68
- YES
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
26142 shares @ 6.0¢·now 5.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.5K
$-87.73
- NO
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
1937 shares @ 65.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.3K
$48.41
- YES
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
34659 shares @ 1.6¢·now 3.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.2K
$656.76
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during July Press Conference?$29.55Jul 29, 03:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during July Press Conference?$254.10Jul 29, 03:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during July Press Conference?$138.39Jul 29, 03:03 UTC
- YIELD$1.64Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$1.63Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$1.62Jul 27, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$2.69Jul 26, 12:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$2.80Jul 26, 09:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$4.47Jul 26, 07:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$12.09Jul 26, 06:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$4.47Jul 26, 06:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$7.23Jul 26, 04:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$17.31Jul 26, 02:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$155.28Jul 26, 02:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$642.30Jul 26, 02:19 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$5.45Jul 26, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$1.63Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
- REWARD$3.75Jul 26, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Fake News" during White House Correspondents Dinner?$3.1KJul 25, 04:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Fake News" during White House Correspondents Dinner?$166.74Jul 25, 02:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
83% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $103.96
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 03:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.