Novel-Sow
0xf278a463b5666fd953bc1f57302095003f3aa69d
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
41
Open notional
$106.23
Total PnL
$-123.85
Realised
$-46.99
Win rate
53%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 41- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
26 shares @ 84.6¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$23.08
$1.50
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?
341 shares @ 3.2¢·now 3.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$12.06
$1.11
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?
32 shares @ 11.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$10.85
$7.29
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?
10 shares @ 88.5¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$10.14
$1.12
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?
10 shares @ 89.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$10.00
$1.07
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?
5 shares @ 84.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$5.00
$0.78
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?
5 shares @ 91.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$5.00
$0.41
- YES
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?
5 shares @ 47.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$4.73
$2.51
- NO
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
114 shares @ 5.1¢·now 4.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$4.60
$-1.15
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
114 shares @ 7.8¢·now 4.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$4.60
$-4.28
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$4.23Apr 1, 04:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?$0.31Mar 31, 23:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?$0.28Mar 31, 23:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?$0.27Mar 31, 23:53 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026?$0.27Mar 31, 23:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31?$2.92Mar 31, 23:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?$4.54Mar 31, 18:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?$5.00Mar 31, 18:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?$1.82Mar 29, 15:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?$0.92Mar 29, 15:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?$2.70Mar 29, 15:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.89Mar 29, 15:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.84Mar 29, 15:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?$2.78Mar 29, 15:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?$0.70Mar 29, 15:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?$0.70Mar 29, 14:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?$0.20Mar 29, 14:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?$0.69Mar 29, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?$0.18Mar 29, 13:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$3.15Mar 29, 11:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $1.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 28, 00:45 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 1, 04:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.