Novel-Sow
0xf278a463b5666fd953bc1f57302095003f3aa69d
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
41
Open notional
$134.78
Total PnL
$-95.30
Realised
$-46.99
Win rate
53%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 41- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
114 shares @ 7.8¢·now 26.8¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$30.41
$21.53
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
26 shares @ 84.6¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$24.10
$2.52
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?
341 shares @ 3.2¢·now 4.9¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$16.70
$5.74
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?
10 shares @ 88.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$10.20
$1.17
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?
10 shares @ 89.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$10.00
$1.07
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?
32 shares @ 11.0¢·now 28.1¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$9.09
$5.52
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?
5 shares @ 84.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$5.00
$0.78
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?
5 shares @ 91.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$5.00
$0.41
- YES
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?
5 shares @ 47.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$4.73
$2.51
- YES
Ethereum flipped in 2026?
4 shares @ 44.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.02
$2.21
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$4.23Apr 1, 04:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?$0.31Mar 31, 23:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?$0.28Mar 31, 23:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?$0.27Mar 31, 23:53 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026?$0.27Mar 31, 23:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31?$2.92Mar 31, 23:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?$4.54Mar 31, 18:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?$5.00Mar 31, 18:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?$1.82Mar 29, 15:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?$0.92Mar 29, 15:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?$2.70Mar 29, 15:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.89Mar 29, 15:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.84Mar 29, 15:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?$2.78Mar 29, 15:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?$0.70Mar 29, 15:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?$0.70Mar 29, 14:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?$0.20Mar 29, 14:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?$0.69Mar 29, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?$0.18Mar 29, 13:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$3.15Mar 29, 11:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
53% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $1.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 28, 00:45 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 1, 04:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.