Notable-Shoreline
0xf28fe54027fb3ef6a27b3989d360f002796a841a
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$308.33
Total PnL
$-2.5K
Realised
$-85.85
Win rate
5%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- YES
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?
250 shares @ 46.0¢·now 45.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$112.38
$-2.63
- NO
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?
192 shares @ 51.3¢·now 53.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$102.43
$3.94
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?
150 shares @ 58.8¢·now 62.4¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$93.53
$5.33
- YES
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?
52381 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-99.92
- YES
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
52265 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-99.95
- YES
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)
5053 shares @ 10.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-542.42
- YES
Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?
1996 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-199.58
- YES
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?
890 shares @ 10.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-90.45
- NO
Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?
816 shares @ 14.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-117.12
- YES
Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026?
707 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-155.38
Recent activity
- TRADEBUY0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?$115.00Aug 17, 22:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?$90.74Aug 17, 21:54 UTC
- REDEEMYabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?$212.35Aug 17, 17:42 UTC
- REDEEMMoscow air traffic suspended by August 31?$3.25Aug 15, 05:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYMoscow air traffic suspended by August 31?$3.16Aug 14, 09:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYYabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?$180.73Aug 10, 21:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYYabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?$26.69Aug 10, 21:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?$89.26Aug 6, 20:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?$15.68Aug 6, 20:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?$103.62Aug 6, 20:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?$0.00Aug 5, 06:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?$269.99Aug 5, 00:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?$124.89Aug 4, 03:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?$44.87Aug 3, 16:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?$79.74Aug 3, 16:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026?$78.36Aug 3, 01:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026?$31.04Aug 3, 00:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?$86.00Aug 2, 10:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?$7.04Aug 1, 22:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?$14.10Aug 1, 22:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
5% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $55.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 30, 15:22 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 22:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.