Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026?
Probability
88¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
-1.0pp
24h Vol
$10.00
Liquidity
$6.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
+5.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 1pp over 24h
Now 88¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1569h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1568.6h
- 15:21SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1569h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 88¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 87¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 87¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 87¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 87¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 87¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 88¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 88¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 88¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 88¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 86¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 86¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 86¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 86¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 86¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 86¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 86¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 86¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 89¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 89¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 89¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 87¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 87¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Waymo begins offering its ride-hailing service to the general public within the listed city by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. A qualifying launch requires the general public be able to hail a Waymo vehicle within the listed city \ through the Waymo One app or another official Waymo platform (such as a dedicated website or integrated partner app like Uber). Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify. The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo (see: https://waymo.com/rides/c), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).