Watery-Makeup
0xf316b0e46a9a42650a0f0cff3f3ffff9e9694608
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
29
Open notional
$53.57
Total PnL
$-247.04
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 29- YES
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?
200 shares @ 23.0¢·now 11.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$22.20
$-23.80
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
10 shares @ 47.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.00
$5.30
- YES
Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30?
10 shares @ 75.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$10.00
$2.45
- YES
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?
20 shares @ 66.2¢·now 31.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.20
$-7.05
- YES
Will Trump's approval rating hit 44% in 2026?
14 shares @ 72.5¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.31
$-8.69
- YES
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
10 shares @ 38.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.25
$-2.55
- NO
Trump out as President by March 31?
1 shares @ 94.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.05
$0.05
- NO
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
5 shares @ 96.4¢·now 20.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.03
$-3.79
- YES
Will Trump deport more than 1m people?
50 shares @ 10.0¢·now 1.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.52
$-4.47
- YES
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?
22000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-50.25
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?$2.50Mar 13, 21:37 UTC
- REDEEMHezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?$2.13Mar 8, 03:19 UTC
- REDEEMUS strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?$45.00Mar 8, 03:19 UTC
- TRADESELLNuclear weapon detonation by June 30?$9.00Feb 26, 08:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?$10.00Feb 13, 03:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?$15.00Feb 13, 03:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?$20.00Feb 13, 03:19 UTC
- REDEEMUS bank failure by March 31?$20.00Feb 13, 03:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump deport more than 1m people?$2.13Jan 31, 12:06 UTC
- TRADESELLEpstein client list released by June 30?$66.00Jan 31, 11:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump deport more than 1m people?$2.26Jan 31, 10:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump deport more than 1m people?$0.60Jan 31, 10:12 UTC
- TRADESELLTesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?$6.90Jan 22, 18:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?$4.98Jan 17, 18:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?$4.52Jan 17, 10:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?$0.49Jan 16, 23:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?$10.00Jan 14, 21:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?$10.00Jan 14, 21:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?$40.00Jan 14, 21:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?$0.82Jan 14, 20:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $8.06
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 9, 17:26 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 13, 21:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.