Merry-Compass
0xf38ef222875f7d34ca50f8e27889a857f8a31917
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
99
Open notional
$105.91
Total PnL
$-164.63
Realised
$1.93
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 99- YES
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?
50 shares @ 44.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$35.75
$13.75
- YES
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
47 shares @ 32.2¢·now 39.1¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$18.18
$3.18
- YES
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?
47 shares @ 45.1¢·now 25.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$11.87
$-9.14
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 July 13-19?
26 shares @ 52.0¢·now 44.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$11.44
$-2.08
- NO
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
25 shares @ 40.0¢·now 45.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$11.38
$1.38
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 July 13-19?
26 shares @ 24.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$6.37
$0.13
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?
12 shares @ 40.0¢·now 49.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$5.88
$1.08
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
4 shares @ 69.0¢·now 42.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.83
$-1.17
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in July?
13 shares @ 40.0¢·now 13.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.75
$-3.44
- YES
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?
71 shares @ 1.4¢·now 2.1¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$1.46
$0.46
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $1,800 on July 13?$0.49Jul 13, 21:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum dip to $1,750 on July 13?$7.58Jul 13, 21:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,750 on July 13?$4.47Jul 13, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $1,800 on July 13?$1.79Jul 13, 20:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,700 July 13-19?$13.97Jul 13, 20:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $1,900 July 13-19?$6.57Jul 13, 20:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 in July?$2.79Jul 13, 17:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?$9.90Jul 13, 17:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in July?$15.32Jul 13, 17:54 UTC
- TRADESELLZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?$1.54Jul 13, 17:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?$3.11Jul 13, 15:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.89Jul 12, 07:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$2.70Jul 9, 09:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?$8.67Jul 9, 09:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?$5.23Jul 7, 08:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$2.86Jul 5, 19:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?$5.12Jul 5, 14:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in July?$13.10Jul 3, 10:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,500 in July?$5.42Jul 2, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?$5.00Jul 2, 18:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $5.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 8, 07:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 13, 21:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.