Pertinent-Initial
0xf40bc82a0a9ec25a0f6d88e7568b9f2fcc9f7181
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
22
Open notional
$47.31
Total PnL
$-1.5K
Realised
$3.21
Win rate
63%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- OPENAI
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
176 shares @ 48.0¢·now 23.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$40.48
$-44.00
- YES
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
9 shares @ 35.0¢·now 68.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$6.18
$3.03
- YES
Will Sandy Spidel Neumann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?
15 shares @ 20.0¢·now 4.3¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$0.65
$-2.35
- YES
Will Progressive Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
1 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.1¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-0.01
- UNDER
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 2.5
894 shares @ 60.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 7, 2026$0.00
$-540.57
- YES
Will 2000 Meters to Andriivka be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?
463 shares @ 82.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-379.66
- MIDDLE TENNESSEE BLUE RAIDERS
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocks
379 shares @ 15.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026$0.00
$-57.23
- FENERBAHCE
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahce
311 shares @ 49.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 4, 2025$0.00
$-154.88
- YES
Will Blue Prince win Most Innovative Gameplay in the 2025 Steam Awards?
299 shares @ 14.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 3, 2026$0.00
$-43.28
- YES
Will Powell say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" 7+ times during March press conference?
297 shares @ 47.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-139.59
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$0.14Apr 21, 11:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 24 and 27 inclusive?$92.30Apr 21, 04:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 24 and 27 inclusive?$28.80Apr 21, 04:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?$1.17Apr 20, 07:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Washington Wizards have the worst record in the NBA?$4.00Apr 20, 07:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?$103.00Apr 20, 07:58 UTC
- REDEEMMilitary action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?$983.00Apr 20, 07:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 55%?$999.00Apr 20, 07:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?$98.75Apr 13, 05:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?$98.75Apr 11, 02:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 10, 2026?$98.70Apr 9, 13:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 10, 2026?$178.60Apr 7, 11:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 55%?$898.10Apr 7, 11:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYMilitary action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?$275.24Apr 7, 09:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?$148.92Mar 31, 10:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWeed rescheduled by December 31?$78.84Mar 31, 10:05 UTC
- TRADESELLQuerétaro FC vs. FC Juárez: Both Teams to Score$334.43Mar 31, 10:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?$71.50Mar 31, 10:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump or Melania say "Trump" at Chicago Opening Night?$123.00Mar 31, 09:55 UTC
- TRADESELLForeign intervention in Gaza by June 30?$233.28Mar 31, 09:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $243.24
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 20, 07:31 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 21, 11:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".