Expensive-Hubcap
0xf434e8aee8c7f83ed0d7e36f281383ee1d99c6aa
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$1.4K
Total PnL
$-14.8K
Realised
$-4.1K
Win rate
33%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
832 shares @ 82.2¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$786.53
$101.99
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
512 shares @ 69.7¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$391.89
$35.04
- NO
Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?
100 shares @ 89.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$94.36
$5.49
- NO
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
68 shares @ 70.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$62.91
$15.30
- YES
Iran leadership change by December 31?
123 shares @ 66.0¢·now 20.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$25.21
$-55.97
- YES
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026?
44 shares @ 5.1¢·now 3.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.43
$-0.82
- NO
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
6310 shares @ 92.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-5.9K
- NO
US strikes Iraq by February 28?
1818 shares @ 95.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.7K
- YES
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
1076 shares @ 97.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.0K
- NO
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 34m and 37m?
1004 shares @ 97.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$0.00
$-978.39
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 27, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 26, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 25, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 24, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$133.10Jul 17, 17:03 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
6 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 6
- Avg trade size
- $118.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 18, 00:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.