Warmhearted-Infrastructure
0xf4f081600830392b761b8d5930393f33efb08646
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
127
Open notional
$204.75
Total PnL
$-532.01
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 127- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
50 shares @ 82.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$45.25
$4.25
- NO
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
47 shares @ 58.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$36.67
$9.58
- NO
Kash Patel out by December 31?
50 shares @ 51.6¢·now 68.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$34.32
$8.47
- YES
Will Trump say "State of the Art" in July?
46 shares @ 26.8¢·now 33.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$15.18
$2.83
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
14 shares @ 71.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$13.95
$4.01
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
40 shares @ 32.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.60
$-4.20
- YES
GMGN FDV above $200M one day after launch
20 shares @ 60.0¢·now 42.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$8.40
$-3.60
- YES
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
25 shares @ 11.9¢·now 31.3¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$7.81
$4.84
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
8 shares @ 79.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$7.64
$1.32
- YES
Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 87.0¢·now 95.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.79
$0.43
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Fake News" during White House Correspondents Dinner?$0.19Jul 25, 05:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?$4.37Jul 20, 05:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?$5.00Jul 19, 22:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of August 2026?$1.66Jul 18, 11:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no one dissent the July Fed decision?$1.96Jul 18, 06:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Shots fired" or "Shots will be fired" during White House Correspondents Dinner?$1.49Jul 18, 06:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Fake News" during White House Correspondents Dinner?$0.15Jul 18, 06:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?$5.00Jul 18, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Transgender" during White House Correspondents Dinner?$3.79Jul 17, 11:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?$1.65Jul 16, 05:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France vs. England end in a draw?$1.35Jul 16, 05:36 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?$5.00Jul 16, 05:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill England vs. Argentina end in a draw?$1.73Jul 15, 06:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?$4.29Jul 15, 06:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?$8.00Jul 14, 22:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?$0.00Jul 14, 14:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?$1.86Jul 12, 05:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?$1.05Jul 12, 05:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?$1.54Jul 12, 05:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?$4.95Jul 12, 05:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $3.72
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 2, 15:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 05:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.