Key-Mountain
0xf5bd0f1e561a14bb1b527e3b06d59989ae17169a
Wallet digest
Activity score
47/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-5.9K
Realised
$232.59
Win rate
43%
23 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?
41864 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-88.67
- YES
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
41854 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-110.58
- NO
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?
12401 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-226.39
- NO
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?
9606 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-177.91
- YES
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026?
9570 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-45.08
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
9500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-9.98
- YES
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31?
8260 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-42.98
- YES
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 11, 2026?
7100 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-7.70
- NO
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?
6000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-15.00
- NO
Trump kiss by May 31?
6000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down on June 6?$5.29Jun 6, 10:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down on June 6?$74.14Jun 6, 10:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down on June 6?$6.37Jun 6, 10:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down on June 6?$1.06Jun 6, 10:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?$4.67Jun 6, 10:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?$6.62Jun 6, 10:46 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?$19.21Jun 6, 10:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$55.59Jun 6, 10:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down on June 6?$124.05Jun 6, 10:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down on June 6?$30.55Jun 6, 10:41 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strike on Cuba by December 31?$142.89Jun 6, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down on June 6?$73.89Jun 6, 05:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down on June 6?$211.92Jun 6, 05:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down on June 6?$106.03Jun 6, 05:09 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strike on Cuba by December 31?$404.02Jun 6, 05:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?$20.00Jun 5, 22:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8?$19.99Jun 5, 22:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$71.22Jun 5, 15:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8?$17.10Jun 5, 08:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strike on Cuba by December 31?$560.00Jun 5, 08:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
45/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
43% win rate over 23 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
23 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $45.71
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 2, 06:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 6, 10:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 23 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.