Plain-Guestbook
0xf6461c5acf9f0acc089179c70defa528c0fbaa3a
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
84
Open notional
$619.38
Total PnL
$-356.98
Realised
$36.57
Win rate
41%
29 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 84- YES
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
177 shares @ 20.4¢·now 82.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$145.38
$109.34
- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
110 shares @ 33.6¢·now 86.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$95.09
$58.05
- NO
Netanyahu out by June 30?
72 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$72.03
$3.60
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
85 shares @ 60.4¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$65.25
$13.77
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
149 shares @ 18.0¢·now 20.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$29.87
$3.02
- YES
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?
23 shares @ 70.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$23.48
$7.04
- NO
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
33 shares @ 29.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$23.05
$13.57
- NO
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?
21 shares @ 92.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$20.61
$1.56
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
163 shares @ 10.2¢·now 12.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$20.17
$3.50
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
185 shares @ 31.9¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.53
$-41.40
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 27, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 26, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 25, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 24, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 22, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 20:09 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
41% win rate over 29 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
29 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 00:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 29 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.