Wallet digest

active

Activity score

73/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

Open notional

$352.20

Total PnL

$-62.39

Realised

$0.00

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 19

SPACEX
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?
50 shares @ 99.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027
$50.00
$0.40
NO
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?
50 shares @ 94.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$47.75
$0.75
NO
Will Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026?
47 shares @ 99.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2027
$46.84
$0.28
NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
30 shares @ 92.0¢·now 97.6¢·exp Sep 30, 2026
$29.35
$1.68
YES
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?
28 shares @ 84.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026
$28.00
$4.37
NO
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
24 shares @ 96.3¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$23.72
$0.42
NO
Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026?
20 shares @ 97.4¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 1, 2027
$19.95
$0.47
NO
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
21 shares @ 98.4¢·now 89.0¢·exp Dec 6, 2026
$18.70
$-1.96
NO
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
20 shares @ 90.0¢·now 91.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$18.22
$0.22
ANTHROPIC
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
21 shares @ 26.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027
$17.74
$12.35

Recent activity

YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:11 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:17 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:18 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:18 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:18 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

pass

6 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity50 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence0 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry5 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk54 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 6
Avg trade size: $17.20
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 8, 23:40 UTC
Last active: Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
Win rate sample: 0 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 09:40:36 UTC·src:Polymarket Data