ScienceExpires Jun 15, 2026

Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?

Probability

20¢

1h

+0.1pp

24h

+0.3pp

24h Vol

$132.00

Liquidity

$8.4K

Probability (last 7 days)

+8.1pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 18:00Apr 25, 2026, 17:31
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 1206h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Wide spread — 10.6¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 1206.5h

    LOW
  • 17:32Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 1206h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.3pp over the last 24h, now 20¢.

Biggest hourly move: +10.9pp at 1d ago (to 22¢).

Show all 27 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 17:00 · +5.2pp → 20¢
  • 15:00 · +5.9pp → 20¢
  • 14:00 · +5.9pp → 20¢
  • 12:00 · +6.0pp → 20¢
  • 11:00 · +5.8pp → 21¢
  • 09:00 · +7.5pp → 21¢
  • 08:00 · +7.5pp → 21¢
  • 06:00 · +7.5pp → 21¢
  • 05:00 · +7.5pp → 21¢
  • 03:00 · +7.9pp → 21¢
  • 02:00 · +5.8pp → 19¢
  • 00:00 · +5.9pp → 19¢
  • 23:00 · +5.6pp → 19¢
  • 21:00 · +4.3pp → 19¢
  • 20:00 · +4.4pp → 19¢
  • 18:00 · +4.6pp → 19¢
  • 1d ago · +4.1pp → 19¢
  • 1d ago · +3.6pp → 19¢
  • 1d ago · +3.0pp → 22¢
  • 1d ago · +10.9pp → 22¢
  • 2d ago · +10.4pp → 22¢
  • 2d ago · +10.0pp → 21¢
  • 2d ago · +9.9pp → 21¢
  • 2d ago · +9.8pp → 21¢
  • 2d ago · +9.0pp → 20¢
  • 2d ago · -5.3pp → 14¢
  • 2d ago · -3.4pp → 14¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

7
Same eventSpaceX IPO by ___ ?

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If SpaceX is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 15, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (10.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket