Spiffy-Definition
0xf7ecb5a025835c31f12a59ae95fdc7e0315ce53a
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
44
Open notional
$317.83
Total PnL
$-121.37
Realised
$-28.54
Win rate
13%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 44- YES
Will Democrats win exactly 5 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?
387 shares @ 39.0¢·now 34.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$133.66
$-17.38
- O 99.5
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win more than 99.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season?
60 shares @ 62.3¢·now 41.5¢·exp Oct 5, 2026$24.90
$-12.50
- O 80.5
Will the Texas Rangers win more than 80.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season?
40 shares @ 48.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Oct 5, 2026$16.20
$-3.00
- NO
Will Anyone's Legend make a roster change by December?
20 shares @ 48.0¢·now 60.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$12.00
$2.40
- NO
Will Notre Dame be a top 4 seed in the 2027 College Football Playoffs?
20 shares @ 58.0¢·now 56.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$11.20
$-0.40
- YES
Will Miami (FL) make College Football Playoff Quarterfinals?
20 shares @ 59.0¢·now 55.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$11.00
$-0.80
- NO
Will BBL Esports Qualify to VCT Champs 2026?
20 shares @ 86.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$10.10
$-7.10
- NO
Will Colston Loveland have 5.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
20 shares @ 51.0¢·now 44.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2027$8.80
$-1.40
- O 6.5
Will Baylor have more than 6.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?
20 shares @ 39.0¢·now 39.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$7.75
$0.00
- YES
Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?
20 shares @ 48.0¢·now 38.5¢·exp Oct 20, 2026$7.70
$-1.90
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on September 30, 2026?$6.03Aug 22, 07:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on September 30, 2026?$6.80Aug 22, 07:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republicans win the New Mexico governor race in 2026?$1.26Aug 22, 07:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the New Mexico governor race in 2026?$1.97Aug 22, 07:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?$7.41Aug 22, 07:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?$7.80Aug 22, 07:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gen.G Win VCT Pacific Stage 2 2026?$9.95Aug 22, 07:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gen.G Win VCT Pacific Stage 2 2026?$14.20Aug 22, 07:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from August 25 to September 1, 2026?$7.96Aug 22, 06:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from August 25 to September 1, 2026?$12.80Aug 22, 06:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?$91.70Aug 22, 06:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?$92.99Aug 22, 06:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democrats win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026?$28.28Aug 22, 06:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026?$25.69Aug 22, 06:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026?$13.28Aug 22, 06:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gears of War: E-Day win Best Game Direction at the 2026 Game Awards?$7.28Aug 22, 06:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sydney Kamlager-Dove win the CA-37 House seat?$72.82Aug 22, 04:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sydney Kamlager-Dove win the CA-37 House seat?$73.24Aug 22, 04:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's initial public offering occur in September 2026 (ET)?$12.10Aug 22, 03:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's initial public offering occur in September 2026 (ET)?$13.16Aug 22, 03:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
13% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $24.77
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 21, 21:02 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 22, 07:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.