Will Miami (FL) make College Football Playoff Quarterfinals?
Probability
55¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-7.0pp
24h Vol
$184.00
Liquidity
$737.49
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+5.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 7pp over 24h
Now 55¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $737 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 60¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
Liquidity is thin enough that movement can be noisy. Verify source context before reading the move as information.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: consensus of credible reporting
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will Miami (FL) make College Football Playoff Quarterfinals? State: Illiquid — liquidity sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will Miami (FL) make College Football Playoff Quarterfinals? State: liquidity sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowPrice movement
-7.0pp over the last 24h, now 55¢.
Biggest hourly move: -24.5pp at 03:00 (to 38¢).
Show top 8 of 45 hourly moves
- 03:00 · -24.5pp → 38¢
- Aug 20, 14:00 UTC · +13.5pp → 62¢
- Aug 20, 12:00 UTC · +13.5pp → 62¢
- Aug 20, 10:00 UTC · +13.5pp → 62¢
- Aug 19, 20:00 UTC · +13.0pp → 62¢
- Aug 19, 19:00 UTC · +13.0pp → 62¢
- Aug 19, 18:00 UTC · +13.0pp → 62¢
- Aug 18, 06:00 UTC · +13.5pp → 62¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 54¢-1.0
Will Georgia make College Football Playoff Quarterfinals?
Business · Vol $0.00
- 38¢-2.5
Will Indiana make College Football Playoff Quarterfinals?
Business · Vol $0.00
- 49¢-4.5
Will Texas make College Football Playoff Quarterfinals?
Business · Vol $0.00
- 27¢0.0
Will Ole Miss make College Football Playoff Quarterfinals?
Business · Vol $0.00
- 30¢+0.5
Will Alabama make College Football Playoff Quarterfinals?
Business · Vol $0.00
- 25¢-24.4
Will Arizona make College Football Playoff Quarterfinals?
Business · Vol $0.00
- 26¢-23.5
Will Arkansas make College Football Playoff Quarterfinals?
Business · Vol $0.00
- 3¢0.0
Will Arizona St. make College Football Playoff Quarterfinals?
Business · Vol $0.00
- 0¢0.0
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffs
Sports · Vol $2.4M
- 100¢+43.5
LoL: Team WE vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner
Sports · Vol $773.0K
- 47¢+7.0
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-08-22?
Sports · Vol $748.7K
- 73¢+13.0
LoL: Team WE vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
Sports · Vol $611.8K
- 73¢0.0
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Playoffs
Sports · Vol $485.7K
- 37¢0.0
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-08-22?
Sports · Vol $417.6K
Market Description
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed team reaches the quarterfinal round of the 2026 College Football Playoff. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". The "quarterfinal round" refers to the round of the 12-team College Football Playoff for the 2026 season in which eight teams remain (the four first-round winners plus the four teams seeded 1–4 that received first-round byes). A team counts as reaching the quarterfinals if it is scheduled to play in a quarterfinal game, whether by receiving a top-4 seed and a first-round bye or by winning its first-round game. If the College Football Playoff for the 2026 season is canceled or the quarterfinal round is not played by January 13, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from the College Football Playoff (https://collegefootballplayoff.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
layoffReason
Question text contains "layoff" — matched the Business keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Miami (FL) make College Football Playoff Quarterfinals?"?
As of Sat, 22 Aug 2026 08:30:35 GMT, YES is priced at 55% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -7.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +5.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
Resolution date is not yet set on Polymarket. Settlement source when posted: the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$184.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $184.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $737.49. Spread between best bid and best ask: 4.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.