Round-Affinity
0xf82e4312bea924b38e222d25c7814d03cbadad17
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$199.79
Total PnL
$-137.36
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
100 shares @ 68.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$60.49
$-7.50
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
100 shares @ 61.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$40.50
$-20.50
- YES
Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.1% and 1.5%?
100 shares @ 41.0¢·now 40.0¢·exp Jan 10, 2027$40.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?
100 shares @ 23.0¢·now 29.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$29.00
$6.00
- YES
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
100 shares @ 46.0¢·now 25.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$25.80
$-20.20
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
100 shares @ 3.9¢·now 4.0¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$4.00
$0.10
- YES
Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22?
200 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 29?
100 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on May 1?
50 shares @ 87.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-43.95
- YES
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
50 shares @ 67.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-33.31
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?$7.82Jul 20, 08:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?$5.97Jul 18, 04:42 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.24Jul 18, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$22.03Jul 17, 20:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$38.97Jul 17, 20:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?$9.20Jul 17, 19:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$3.90Jul 17, 17:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.1% and 1.5%?$41.00Jul 17, 16:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?$67.99Jul 17, 16:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$46.00Jul 17, 13:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?$8.30Jul 17, 10:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?$5.50Jul 16, 22:22 UTC
- REWARD$1.26Jul 16, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $365 Week of July 13 2026?$50.00Jul 15, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $365 Week of July 13 2026?$33.00Jul 15, 09:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?$0.18Jul 15, 08:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$9.64Jul 15, 04:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$140.35Jul 15, 04:41 UTC
- REWARD$1.71Jul 15, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?$89.63Jul 10, 14:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $25.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 3, 16:47 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 08:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.