Handsome-Fibroblast
0xf82f84a802deaab835ba9d82b1f1787386d55ac5
Wallet digest
Activity score
97/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$8.20
Total PnL
$1.46
Realised
$26.84
Win rate
100%
25 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Logan Gilbert win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?
80 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.8¢·exp Nov 12, 2026$0.64
$0.48
- YES
Will Song Yadong be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
80 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.60
$0.44
- YES
Will Marco Mendicino win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
80 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.8¢·exp Oct 26, 2026$0.60
$0.44
- YES
Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
80 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.56
$0.40
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026?
80 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$0.36
$0.20
- YES
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition?
80 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.32
$0.16
- YES
Will Liudmila Samsonova win the 2026 Women’s US Open?
80 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.4¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$0.32
$0.16
- YES
Will Natalia Kiselova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
80 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$0.32
$0.16
- YES
Will the Republican Party hold 32 or more governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?
80 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.32
$0.16
- YES
Will Donna Vekic win the 2026 Women’s US Open?
80 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.4¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$0.28
$0.12
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?$0.36Jul 28, 17:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?$1.08Jul 28, 17:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYIAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?$0.16Jul 28, 15:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Natalia Kiselova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?$0.08Jul 28, 15:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Natalia Kiselova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?$0.06Jul 28, 14:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Natalia Kiselova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?$0.02Jul 28, 14:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Yanaki Stoilov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?$0.16Jul 28, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYClaudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by July 31?$0.16Jul 28, 13:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill David Martinez be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?$1.44Jul 28, 13:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Josh Stein win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.16Jul 28, 07:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Victoria Mboko win the 2026 Women’s US Open?$0.16Jul 28, 03:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew "Stranger Things" episode released by July 31? $0.16Jul 28, 02:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sassuolo win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?$0.02Jul 27, 20:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike 11 countries in 2026?$0.08Jul 27, 18:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Minnesota Twins win the 2026 World Series?$0.01Jul 27, 15:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Josh Stein win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.00Jul 27, 15:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$0.16Jul 27, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Venezia win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?$0.01Jul 27, 11:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sassuolo win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?$0.02Jul 27, 11:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Venezia win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?$0.02Jul 27, 11:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
49/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 25 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 22/100.
25 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.15
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 16:28 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 17:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 25 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.