Disloyal-Gladiolus
0xf9375d35188f69459efa94114c28b860bd8f53a1
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$272.53
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$-3.21
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- YES
Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?
511 shares @ 49.9¢·now 50.5¢·exp Aug 30, 2026$257.85
$2.85
- YES
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?
65 shares @ 23.0¢·now 22.5¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$14.67
$-0.33
- NO
Will Isaac del Toro win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?
868 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 9, 2026$0.00
$-364.76
- NO
Will Mads Pedersen be awarded the Green Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?
814 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 9, 2026$0.00
$-35.12
- NO
Will Finland be the best Nordic country at Eurovision 2026?
655 shares @ 33.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-217.82
- NO
Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election?
462 shares @ 73.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$0.00
$-338.32
- NO
Will Serbia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
372 shares @ 19.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-71.79
- YES
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open?
195 shares @ 8.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-17.00
- YES
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open?
100 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open?
97 shares @ 10.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?$15.58Jul 29, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYIcelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?$260.11Jul 27, 23:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tadej Pogačar be awarded the Polka Dot Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?$1.2KJul 26, 21:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mads Pedersen be awarded the Green Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?$8.89Jul 24, 18:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mads Pedersen be awarded the Green Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?$18.71Jul 24, 18:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mads Pedersen be awarded the Green Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?$9.17Jul 24, 18:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Isaac del Toro win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?$257.12Jul 23, 17:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Isaac del Toro win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?$118.20Jul 23, 17:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?$117.26Jul 23, 12:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tadej Pogačar be awarded the Polka Dot Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?$302.21Jul 22, 20:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tadej Pogačar be awarded the Polka Dot Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?$196.86Jul 22, 02:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?$99.21Jul 21, 15:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$23.20Jun 27, 04:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$19.26Jun 20, 16:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?$19.38Jun 20, 11:11 UTC
- REWARD$1.07Jun 12, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?$6.80Jun 11, 22:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?$6.38Jun 11, 19:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?$365.19Jun 10, 23:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?$873.60Jun 4, 08:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $120.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 6, 17:47 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 19:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.