0xf9b71663d723d28fa455db659098e1dacde860a4
0xf9b71663d723d28fa455db659098e1dacde860a4
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$63.9K
Total PnL
$-101.1K
Realised
$1.6K
Win rate
40%
55 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
7000 shares @ 85.9¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.3K
$325.03
- YES
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
7424 shares @ 67.0¢·now 82.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.1K
$1.1K
- NO
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
5633 shares @ 77.6¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.0K
$611.94
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
4907 shares @ 93.5¢·now 95.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.7K
$101.36
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
3000 shares @ 93.0¢·now 93.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.8K
$18.00
- NO
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?
4124 shares @ 63.6¢·now 67.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.8K
$139.79
- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
3000 shares @ 92.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.7K
$-45.00
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
5878 shares @ 34.9¢·now 43.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.5K
$470.02
- YES
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?
4710 shares @ 29.8¢·now 51.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.4K
$1.0K
- YES
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?
2716 shares @ 79.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$2.4K
$244.41
Recent activity
- TRADESELLU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$340.52Jul 31, 12:10 UTC
- TRADESELLU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$36.12Jul 31, 12:10 UTC
- TRADESELLU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$305.47Jul 31, 12:10 UTC
- TRADESELLU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$0.96Jul 31, 12:08 UTC
- TRADESELLU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$4.93Jul 31, 12:03 UTC
- TRADESELLU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$73.80Jul 31, 12:02 UTC
- TRADESELLU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$434.52Jul 31, 12:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?$1.6KJul 31, 03:55 UTC
- TRADESELLU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$77.71Jul 31, 01:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US strike 10 countries in 2026?$105.54Jul 31, 00:20 UTC
- REWARD$0.35Jul 31, 00:20 UTC
- MERGEWill the US strike 9 countries in 2026?$4.6KJul 31, 00:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US strike 9 countries in 2026?$1.8KJul 31, 00:17 UTC
- REWARD$40.18Jul 31, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.97Jul 31, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30?$1.3KJul 30, 23:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31?$595.98Jul 30, 23:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US strike 9 countries in 2026?$3.7KJul 30, 19:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US strike 9 countries in 2026?$195.00Jul 30, 16:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US strike 9 countries in 2026?$196.95Jul 30, 16:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 55 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
55 closed markets, 40% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $370.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 21:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 31, 12:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 55 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.