Second-Bill
0xfa715c7bdf4beab86d8d22d76566c1488f8f8aa0
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$1.0K
Total PnL
$-139.51
Realised
$-43.48
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?
457 shares @ 29.9¢·now 87.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$399.88
$263.29
- YES
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?
372 shares @ 61.2¢·now 35.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$132.08
$-95.64
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
311 shares @ 35.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$129.06
$20.21
- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
122 shares @ 39.5¢·now 85.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$103.88
$55.66
- YES
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
103 shares @ 35.8¢·now 74.9¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$77.10
$40.26
- YES
Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026?
578 shares @ 48.1¢·now 7.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$43.33
$-234.32
- YES
Will Anyone's Legend win the LPL 2026 season?
217 shares @ 18.3¢·now 15.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$33.63
$-6.00
- YES
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?
221 shares @ 12.8¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$18.79
$-9.58
- NO
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
30 shares @ 46.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$16.95
$3.15
- YES
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
21 shares @ 46.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$11.65
$1.99
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 27, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 26, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 25, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 24, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 22, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 20:09 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 9, 00:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
3 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 3
- Avg trade size
- $21.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 13, 12:55 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.