Lustrous-Intervenor
0xfad9afbdf4cb8c9dd00950acb79ff0bfa747a3d2
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
24
Open notional
$726.95
Total PnL
$5.08
Realised
$29.50
Win rate
25%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 24- YES
Israel election: will Likud lose seats?
349 shares @ 79.3¢·now 85.0¢·exp Oct 27, 2026$296.52
$20.02
- NO
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
100 shares @ 87.5¢·now 95.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$95.25
$7.75
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?
94 shares @ 89.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$85.06
$1.41
- YES
Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?
56 shares @ 91.2¢·now 96.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$54.02
$2.71
- NO
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?
61 shares @ 80.2¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$53.86
$5.06
- YES
Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
40 shares @ 82.5¢·now 93.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$37.31
$4.20
- YES
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?
298 shares @ 33.5¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$28.34
$-71.66
- YES
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 2.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$21.50
$11.50
- YES
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2000 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$13.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?
13 shares @ 75.0¢·now 92.6¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$12.35
$2.35
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$2.50Aug 18, 12:06 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 16, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 12, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 9, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 8, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 7, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 6, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 5, 02:32 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 4, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 3, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 2, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 1, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 31, 00:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
9 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 9
- Avg trade size
- $32.65
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 9, 00:17 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 12:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.