0xfbceeded696a5c120f98fc2b00db60fdf0a6f400
0xfbceeded696a5c120f98fc2b00db60fdf0a6f400
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
37
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-540.50
Realised
$-196.45
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 37- YES
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?
15146 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-187.97
- NO
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
14930 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-14.93
- NO
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?
13820 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-17.03
- NO
Will Iran strike Israel on March 9?
7135 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-34.99
- YES
Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?
4000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- NO
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?
2333 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 4, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Keir Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$3.73Apr 29, 08:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Keir Starmer say "Deeply Concerning" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$3.71Apr 28, 07:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Keir Starmer say "Shadow Secretary" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$4.00Apr 27, 21:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Keir Starmer say "Shadow Secretary" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$1.00Apr 27, 21:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Keir Starmer say "Surveillance" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$7.83Apr 27, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Keir Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$8.10Apr 27, 20:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 25?$5.75Apr 25, 05:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?$1.00Apr 23, 22:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?$1.00Apr 23, 22:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?$1.00Apr 23, 22:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "No No No" during healthcare event?$0.96Apr 23, 20:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?$6.60Apr 19, 20:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?$4.00Apr 19, 08:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?$3.44Apr 17, 15:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?$3.00Apr 17, 15:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?$1.00Apr 16, 14:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week?$2.00Apr 16, 05:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week?$3.00Apr 16, 05:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026?$2.51Apr 14, 17:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026?$4.00Apr 13, 19:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $5.37
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 12, 17:31 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 29, 08:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.