Admirable-Trust
0xfbd8c9c22ca76b3662d0e53a4f79719fdc684027
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$377.17
Total PnL
$29.3K
Realised
$47.9K
Win rate
49%
82 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will LeBron James play for the Milwaukee Bucks in 2026-27?
16135 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$8.07
$-440.13
- YES
Will LeBron James play for the Brooklyn Nets in 2026-27?
16135 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$8.07
$-440.13
- YES
Will LeBron James play for the Atlanta Hawks in 2026-27?
15957 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$7.98
$-435.26
- YES
Will LeBron James play for the Indiana Pacers in 2026-27?
15957 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$7.98
$-435.26
- YES
Will LeBron James play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27?
15912 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 1, 2026$7.96
$-434.03
- YES
Will LeBron James play for the Utah Jazz in 2026-27?
15883 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 1, 2026$7.94
$-433.24
- YES
Will LeBron James play for the Chicago Bulls in 2026-27?
15796 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$7.90
$-430.87
- YES
Will LeBron James play for the Memphis Grizzlies in 2026-27?
15796 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$7.90
$-430.87
- YES
Will LeBron James play for the New Orleans Pelicans in 2026-27?
15604 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$7.80
$-425.63
- YES
Will LeBron James play for the Sacramento Kings in 2026-27?
15604 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$7.80
$-425.63
Recent activity
- CONVERSIONElon Musk # tweets July 11 - July 13, 2026?$13.00Jul 11, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?$12.93Jul 11, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?$9.24Jul 11, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?$10.76Jul 11, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?$12.26Jul 11, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?$6.92Jul 11, 16:06 UTC
- CONVERSIONECB Interest Rates: July 2026$100.00Jul 11, 16:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the July 2026 meeting?$99.90Jul 11, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?$1.68Jul 11, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting?$98.38Jul 11, 16:02 UTC
- CONVERSIONElon Musk # tweets July 11 - July 13, 2026?$6.20Jul 11, 16:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?$4.04Jul 11, 16:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?$5.61Jul 11, 16:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?$5.79Jul 11, 16:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?$3.18Jul 11, 16:01 UTC
- CONVERSIONECB Interest Rates: July 2026$100.00Jul 11, 16:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the July 2026 meeting?$99.90Jul 11, 15:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?$1.57Jul 11, 15:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting?$98.48Jul 11, 15:59 UTC
- MERGEWill the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on July 11?$150.00Jul 11, 15:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
49% win rate over 82 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
23 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
82 closed markets, 49% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $31.73
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 11, 15:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 11, 16:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 82 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.