Elementary-Cesspool
0xfbe66593e49c4e7a7180a2582f041158bfb800f8
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
6
Open notional
$165.2K
Total PnL
$-139.4K
Realised
$-5.7K
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
292883 shares @ 47.2¢·now 42.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$124.5K
$-13.7K
- YES
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
83860 shares @ 61.3¢·now 41.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$34.8K
$-16.6K
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
12999 shares @ 76.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$5.7K
$-4.2K
- NO
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
688 shares @ 66.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$299.28
$-154.80
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
297257 shares @ 33.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-98.8K
- YES
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?
259 shares @ 81.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$0.00
$-210.56
Recent activity
- REWARD$1.03Aug 3, 00:15 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$33.90Aug 3, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$70.62Aug 3, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$14.3KAug 2, 03:07 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$155.82Jul 31, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$6.1KJul 30, 06:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$11.6KJul 30, 06:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$9.2KJul 30, 06:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$14.8KJul 30, 06:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$12.1KJul 30, 06:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$12.1KJul 30, 06:25 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$11.62Jul 30, 00:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$2.4KJul 29, 21:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$336.2KJul 29, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$947.20Jul 29, 18:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$370.00Jul 29, 18:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$100.00Jul 29, 18:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$18.8KJul 29, 18:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$19.4KJul 29, 18:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$940.16Jul 29, 18:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
0%
Sample
low
2 ledger trades
Top market concentration
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
$177.6K · 87% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $5.2K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 10:38 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 3, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.