0xfc9b5388ca470f8fff4cd4257bb7704365a35803
0xfc9b5388ca470f8fff4cd4257bb7704365a35803
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$0.70
Total PnL
$-0.70
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
459 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.23
$-0.23
- YES
Will Armenian Revolutionary Federation win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
113 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.06
$-0.06
- YES
Will Lana – Social Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
113 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.06
$-0.06
- YES
Will Progressive Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
112 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.06
$-0.06
- YES
Will Dignity Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
112 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.06
$-0.06
- YES
Will Independence Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
110 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.06
$-0.06
- YES
Will Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
108 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.05
$-0.05
- YES
Will Khatt Ahmar win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
105 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.05
$-0.05
- YES
Will National Liberal Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
86 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.04
$-0.04
- YES
Will Islamic Group win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
75 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.04
$-0.04
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill ReLebanon win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?$0.10Jul 25, 09:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$0.00Jul 20, 14:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?$0.00Jul 5, 11:16 UTC
- REDEEMBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22?$0.00Jul 5, 11:16 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22?$0.37Jul 2, 01:35 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22?$0.05Jul 2, 01:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump and Putin not meet?$0.00Jul 1, 08:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey?$0.00Jul 1, 08:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump and Putin meet next in United States?$0.00Jul 1, 08:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump and Putin meet next in Russia?$0.00Jul 1, 08:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump and Putin meet next in another country?$0.00Jul 1, 08:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June?$0.00Jul 1, 08:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June?$0.00Jul 1, 08:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $47 by end of June?$0.00Jul 1, 08:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?$0.00Jul 1, 08:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June?$0.00Jul 1, 08:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?$0.00Jul 1, 08:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill US withdraw from NATO by June 30?$0.00Jul 1, 08:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?$0.00Jul 1, 08:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June?$0.00Jul 1, 08:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
17 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 17
- Avg trade size
- $0.29
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 29, 23:32 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 09:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.