Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?

1. 1

   Light volume — move on a thin book

   Only $7.8k traded against $57.9k of visible liquidity (0.14× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 1579h with open resolution ambiguity.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.