Fancy-Whale
0xfd7406634dd33871e873fb34b00bfcebb76947c5
Wallet digest
Activity score
99/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
95
Open notional
$68.07
Total PnL
$50.70
Realised
$75.13
Win rate
36%
69 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 95- NO
Will the US lose jobs in June?
5 shares @ 70.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$5.00
$1.49
- NO
Will Ethereal launch a token by June 30, 2027?
8 shares @ 41.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$4.99
$1.77
- NO
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties?
4 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$4.40
$2.20
- NO
Will 51 senators vote "Yea" for Todd Blanche as Attorney General?
6 shares @ 79.1¢·now 69.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.39
$-0.61
- NO
World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties?
4 shares @ 71.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$4.17
$1.18
- UP
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day?
4 shares @ 43.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$3.92
$2.23
- YES
Will 49 senators vote "Yea" for Todd Blanche as Attorney General?
163 shares @ 0.9¢·now 2.1¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.34
$1.84
- NO
Will 50 senators vote "Yea" for Todd Blanche as Attorney General?
5 shares @ 78.5¢·now 61.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.08
$-0.85
- YES
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?
3 shares @ 30.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$2.84
$1.88
- YES
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
2 shares @ 63.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$2.44
$0.90
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Shelley Hughes win the 2026 Alaska governor election?$0.02Jul 29, 09:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 51 senators vote "Yea" for Todd Blanche as Attorney General?$5.00Jul 29, 00:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 49 senators vote "Yea" for Todd Blanche as Attorney General?$0.16Jul 29, 00:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 52 senators vote "Yea" for Todd Blanche as Attorney General?$1.18Jul 28, 21:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 49 senators vote "Yea" for Todd Blanche as Attorney General?$0.96Jul 28, 16:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump and Putin meet next in Ukraine?$0.30Jul 28, 06:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 49 senators vote "Yea" for Todd Blanche as Attorney General?$0.05Jul 28, 02:11 UTC
- TRADESELLCilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026?$4.98Jul 27, 23:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 52 senators vote "Yea" for Todd Blanche as Attorney General?$1.20Jul 27, 22:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI's IPO valuation be at least $2.5T?$0.19Jul 27, 22:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Caleb Durbin win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?$0.02Jul 27, 22:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Caleb Durbin win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?$0.05Jul 27, 22:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Caleb Durbin win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?$0.07Jul 27, 22:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cody Bellinger win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?$0.33Jul 27, 22:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cody Bellinger win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?$0.06Jul 27, 22:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Caleb Durbin win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?$0.04Jul 27, 21:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cody Bellinger win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?$0.33Jul 27, 21:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 54 senators vote "Yea" for Todd Blanche as Attorney General?$0.01Jul 27, 20:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 52 senators vote "Yea" for Todd Blanche as Attorney General?$3.60Jul 27, 17:59 UTC
- TRADESELLCilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026?$0.98Jul 24, 01:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
36% win rate over 69 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.
69 closed markets, 36% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $1.42
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 16:32 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 09:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 69 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.