Scared-Canopy
0xfdd4933e458809725b725e0571f0abf51b1bcd4a
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
54
Open notional
$265.61
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$18.97
Win rate
60%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 54- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?
100 shares @ 90.2¢·now 69.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$69.49
$-20.71
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?
60 shares @ 87.8¢·now 89.3¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$53.55
$0.87
- NO
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
50 shares @ 90.0¢·now 89.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$44.50
$-0.50
- NO
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
30 shares @ 92.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$27.75
$0.15
- YES
Will Cristiano Ronaldo announce his retirement in 2026?
189 shares @ 11.6¢·now 11.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$22.02
$0.14
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?
100 shares @ 7.0¢·now 18.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$18.50
$11.50
- YES
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
130 shares @ 12.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.35
$-3.25
- YES
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
118 shares @ 9.2¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.06
$-0.84
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
30 shares @ 19.7¢·now 19.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$5.80
$-0.10
- YES
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.75
$-0.25
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Cristiano Ronaldo announce his retirement in 2026?$13.92Jul 29, 12:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$18.20Jul 28, 21:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?$110.00Jul 28, 13:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$72.29Jul 28, 13:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cristiano Ronaldo announce his retirement in 2026?$6.56Jul 28, 00:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cristiano Ronaldo announce his retirement in 2026?$1.24Jul 27, 23:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?$37.79Jul 27, 18:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?$11.40Jul 27, 16:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?$17.10Jul 27, 16:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?$7.00Jul 27, 16:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?$27.60Jul 27, 16:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$52.67Jul 27, 13:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$0.01Jul 27, 11:30 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?$39.92Jul 26, 14:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in July?$16.20Jul 26, 11:02 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereal FDV above $50M one day after launch?$51.54Jul 26, 11:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?$10.80Jul 26, 10:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $29.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 14:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 12:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.