Ethereal FDV above $50M one day after launch?
Probability
46¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$1.56
Liquidity
$5.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
+5.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 14772h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 11.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 14772.4h
- 16:35SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 14772h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 16:35PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 46¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 46¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 46¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 46¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 46¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 46¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 46¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 46¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 46¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 46¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 46¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 46¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 46¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 45¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 45¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 45¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 45¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 45¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 45¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 44¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 44¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 44¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 42¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 42¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 42¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 42¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.0pp
to 42¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 44¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethereal's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2028
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (11.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).