Nutritious-Perch
0xfde908115953b459e48f5cd1ce5185834e52cc30
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
18
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.3K
Realised
$-585.50
Win rate
70%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- YES
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?
890 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-20.68
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
580 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-20.18
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
492 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-255.84
- SOMETHING
Nothing Ever Happens: May
468 shares @ 35.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-167.30
- YES
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?
465 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-14.03
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on May 5?
420 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026$0.00
$-4.62
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?
330 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-6.21
- NO
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026?
294 shares @ 50.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-148.87
- NO
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026?
205 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-9.66
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $84,000 on May 6?
204 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-6.31
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$24.00Jul 29, 20:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$21.71Jul 21, 14:36 UTC
- TRADESELLNothing Ever Happens: July$10.10Jul 16, 12:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$193.95Jul 16, 12:50 UTC
- TRADESELLNothing Ever Happens: July$5.10Jul 15, 13:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$89.67Jul 15, 13:34 UTC
- TRADESELLNothing Ever Happens: July$2.25Jul 14, 16:19 UTC
- TRADESELLNothing Ever Happens: July$8.16Jul 14, 12:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$42.18Jul 14, 12:31 UTC
- TRADESELLNothing Ever Happens: July$9.35Jul 14, 12:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$45.83Jul 14, 12:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$20.38Jul 14, 12:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$11.11Jul 14, 12:30 UTC
- TRADESELLNothing Ever Happens: July$9.75Jul 14, 12:30 UTC
- TRADESELLNothing Ever Happens: July$32.93Jul 14, 11:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: July$32.93Jul 14, 10:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$9.48Jul 14, 10:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: July$5.55Jul 14, 10:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$59.39Jul 14, 09:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$127.62Jul 14, 09:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
70% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $23.71
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 8, 11:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 20:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.