Adorable-Grabbag
0xfe3d01c7e2a3a3665b338019af23aea93fd07ae5
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
22
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-65.47
Realised
$-21.95
Win rate
0%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET
1960 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.96
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET
327 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 29?
327 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.96
- DOWN
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET
50 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET
32 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.91
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET
13 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 January 26-1?
12 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.96
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET
10 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$2.06Jul 21, 12:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$2.02Jul 21, 12:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$1.91Jul 21, 12:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$2.02Jul 21, 12:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$1.90Jul 21, 12:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$2.02Jul 21, 12:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?$1.79Jul 21, 12:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?$2.10Jul 21, 12:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.97Jul 21, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$2.03Jul 21, 08:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.96Jul 21, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$2.03Jul 21, 08:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$1.90Jul 21, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$2.02Jul 21, 08:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?$1.92Jul 21, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?$2.07Jul 21, 08:00 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET$2.17Jul 21, 07:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET$2.03Jul 21, 07:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET$2.11Jul 21, 07:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 6, 2026?$1.95Jul 1, 08:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $2.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 15, 14:28 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 12:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.