Wallet digest

active

Activity score

31/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-3.1K

Realised

$-89.72

Win rate

159 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET
2000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - August 9, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 9, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
YES
Will Oliver rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?
256 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025
$0.00
$-1.00
NO
Will Liam rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?
242 shares @ 14.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025
$0.00
$-34.80
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - August 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET
206 shares @ 96.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026
$0.00
$-200.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - August 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET
189 shares @ 83.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026
$0.00
$-158.34
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET
176 shares @ 88.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-156.40
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET
175 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026
$0.00
$-4.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET
170 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026
$0.00
$-78.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET
143 shares @ 75.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026
$0.00
$-108.25

Recent activity

REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET$61.98Aug 15, 14:46 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET$1.32Aug 15, 14:43 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET$4.80Aug 15, 14:43 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET$1.96Aug 15, 14:43 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET$25.00Aug 15, 14:43 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET$24.50Aug 15, 14:43 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET$101.26Aug 15, 14:42 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$0.00Aug 15, 14:26 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$0.00Aug 15, 14:16 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$295.75Aug 15, 14:16 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$36.82Aug 15, 14:14 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$302.08Aug 15, 14:14 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET$0.00Aug 15, 14:10 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET$89.19Aug 15, 14:06 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET$58.54Aug 15, 14:03 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET$36.27Aug 15, 14:03 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET$1.43Aug 15, 14:03 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET$46.50Aug 15, 14:03 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET$4.65Aug 15, 14:03 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET$1.00Aug 15, 14:03 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

62/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

2% win rate over 159 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

159 closed markets, 2% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity68 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry73 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk35 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 34
Avg trade size: $72.20
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Aug 15, 11:55 UTC
Last active: Aug 15, 14:46 UTC
Win rate sample: 159 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 20:59:58 UTC·src:Polymarket Data