0xffcc8a99b626145723a7f041c1babc3181388da2
0xffcc8a99b626145723a7f041c1babc3181388da2
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
3
Open notional
$10.63
Total PnL
$-1.00
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
7 shares @ 76.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$5.49
$0.49
- YES
Will SpaceX say "ISS" or "International Space Station" during earnings call?
6 shares @ 78.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$3.86
$-0.88
- YES
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
7 shares @ 28.0¢·now 19.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$1.28
$-0.61
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?$5.06Aug 3, 04:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Canada" or "Canadian" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?$0.00Aug 2, 20:29 UTC
- REDEEMNew Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?$1.53Aug 2, 20:29 UTC
- REDEEMAnother pandemic before GTA VI?$1.53Aug 2, 20:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?$2.03Aug 2, 20:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?$2.04Aug 2, 20:29 UTC
- REDEEMNew Rihanna Album before GTA VI?$2.93Aug 2, 20:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX say "ISS" or "International Space Station" during earnings call?$4.78Jul 31, 19:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew Rihanna Album before GTA VI?$3.06Jul 31, 11:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by August 31?$1.89Jul 30, 22:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Warsh say "Independence" during July Press Conference?$0.00Jul 30, 19:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?$2.09Jul 30, 09:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?$2.09Jul 30, 01:25 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$0.00Jul 29, 08:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Save America Act" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?$3.00Jul 29, 08:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Independence" during July Press Conference?$1.32Jul 29, 07:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Canada" or "Canadian" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?$1.08Jul 28, 19:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" during Michigan remarks?$0.00Jul 28, 06:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?$3.04Jul 28, 06:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Toyota" during Michigan remarks?$4.06Jul 28, 06:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
17 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 17
- Avg trade size
- $2.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 02:25 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 3, 04:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.