High
OrreryPrediction-market intelligence · research only · not trade advice
Orrery is a verification-first intelligence terminal for prediction markets.
It helps analysts, journalists, research teams, and AI agents understand what moved, why it matters, what can go wrong, and what to verify next. Orrery is not a broker, not a market maker, and does not provide trade recommendations.
World Cup modeJun 11-Jul 19, 2026 · research only · not trade advice
World Cup markets move fast. Orrery verifies the move before you trust the price.
Top movers, matchday brief, not-settled checks, and alerts for screenshots that need source, liquidity, and settlement context.
Tracked
39
24h volume
$76.3M
Lead move
Quiet
Orrery verifies prediction-market movement before you trust the price
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
WHY THIS TARGET
Scoring M1
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET
Ranked by evidence, liquidity, spread quality, resolution state, and whether related markets need comparison.
Source statusLIVEEvidence contextLIVEMarket movement0.0ppLiquidity$0Next checkVerify this market
EVIDENCE ACTIONS
All signals 1Watch only
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Queue proof
24h Δ 14.0pp, 1h Δ 2.0pp · Turnover 4.5× liquidity
2Watch only
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
24h Δ 10.0pp, 1h Δ 4.0pp · Turnover 2.7× liquidity
3Watch only
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
24h Δ 14.0pp, 1h Δ 2.0pp · Turnover 2.4× liquidity
4Watch only
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
24h Δ 6.5pp, 1h Δ 3.5pp · Turnover 4.0× liquidity
5Watch only
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
24h Δ 5.3pp, 1h Δ 0.9pp · Turnover 5.6× liquidity
6Watch only
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
24h Δ 7.5pp, 1h Δ 0.5pp · Turnover 0.5× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
High
High
High
High
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5)UMA PENDING
High
High
High
High
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
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Live Tape quiet — Orrery is still monitoring signals, whale-size flow, 1h moves, source updates, and resolution-state transitions.
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 95/88 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 88 | 95/87 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 88 | 95/86 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 81 | 83/81 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 78 | 78/78 78/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFJune 13, 2026
Read full brief - US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? probability up 14.0pp on $0.7M of 24h volume.
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) resolves in 1h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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