Orrery — the verification layer for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
2 observations · 32 resolution risks
VERIFICATION QUEUERanked checks before you trust the price.
Full research queue ACTIVE VERIFICATION TARGET
Active target: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
40% 16.8pp
24h volume
$205.9K
Verification target100% current69-100% 7D range+27.5pp net move
100%89%79%68%57%
100%
Jun 5100%+27.5pp from start
Jun 4Jun 4Jun 5Jun 5Jun 5Jun 5Jun 5Jun 5
WHY THIS IS #1
Scoring M1
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?
Ranked by evidence, liquidity, spread quality, resolution state, and whether related markets need comparison.
Source statusUMA DISPUTEDEvidence context95/100 evidenceMarket movement16.8ppLiquidity$205.9KNext checkVerify the resolution source and event-cluster siblings
EVIDENCE ACTIONS
All signals 1Open
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?Queue proof
24h Δ 16.8pp, 1h Δ 2.9pp · Turnover 5.7× liquidity
2Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
24h Δ -4.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 2.5× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by June 30?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas RangersPAST EVENT
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta BravesPAST EVENT
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami MarlinsPAST EVENT
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Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue JaysPAST EVENT
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Boston Red Sox vs. New York YankeesPAST EVENT
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Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit TigersPAST EVENT
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Tyler: Andre Ilagan vs Yuta ShimizuPAST EVENT
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Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFirePAST EVENT
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Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5)PAST EVENT
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Knicks vs. SpursPAST EVENT
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Spread: Spurs (-6.5)PAST EVENT
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Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5PAST EVENT
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Spread: Spurs (-5.5)PAST EVENT
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Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5PAST EVENT
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Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago SkyPAST EVENT
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
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Tape quiet — no large trades, signals, or 1h moves above the threshold in this window.
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 95/76 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 82 | 74/97 80/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFJune 6, 2026
Read full brief - Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? probability up 16.8pp on $0.2M of 24h volume.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? resolves in 16h — verify the source before treating as research.
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