Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
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Full research queue UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
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UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
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Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
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UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
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MARKET PULSE
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?MIXED EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest divergence observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
11% 1.0pp
24h volume
$746.3K
Orrery Pulse85% current73-88% 7D range+10.0pp net move
100%75%50%25%0%
85%
May 1685%+10.0pp from start
May 15May 15May 15May 15May 15May 16May 16May 16
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 74 | 54/96 80/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 16, 2026
Read full brief - Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? probability down 6.0pp on $0.2M of 24h volume.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? shows a divergence pattern at 54% evidence — verify on the market.
- Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-05-16? resolves in 4h — verify the source before treating as research.
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WATCHLIST DELTA
Watchlist sits in your browser — we don't store it server-side. Add markets you want to track, then this panel shows the since-last-visit delta for each.
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