US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
4 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2
Resolves in 4h — verify the source
Verify
2LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs
Resolves in 3h — verify the source
Verify
3US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
4Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
5Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Resolution-risk observation — settlement caveat
Verify
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Top read
24h Δ 7.3pp, 1h Δ 0.8pp · Turnover 3.5× liquidity
2Open
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta
24h Δ -6.5pp, 1h Δ -4.5pp · Turnover 6.1× liquidity
3Open
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic
24h Δ 6.0pp, 1h Δ 1.0pp · Turnover 3.5× liquidity
4Open
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
24h Δ 3.5pp, 1h Δ 0.6pp · Turnover 1.9× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-30?UMA PENDING
High
High
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-30?UMA PENDING
High
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30?UMA PENDING
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 86/83 88/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 83 | 70/94 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 81 | 81/81 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 77 | 83/81 60/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 31, 2026
Read full brief - Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? probability up 39.5pp on $1.0M of 24h volume.
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? shows a momentum pattern at 86% evidence — verify on the market.
- LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner resolves in 2h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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