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5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
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Full research queue MARKET PULSE
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest divergence observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
61% 23.5pp
24h volume
$887.3K
Orrery Pulse2% current2-48% 7D range-44.4pp net move
63%47%32%16%0%
2%
May 222%-44.4pp from start
May 16May 16May 17May 18May 19May 20May 21May 22
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA PENDING
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA PENDING
High
High
Trump kiss by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?UMA PENDING
High
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Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles AngelsPAST EVENT
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Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta BravesPAST EVENT
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Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red SoxPAST EVENT
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New York Mets vs. Miami MarlinsPAST EVENT
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue JaysPAST EVENT
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York YankeesPAST EVENT
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Thunder vs. SpursPAST EVENT
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Spread: Spurs (-2.5)PAST EVENT
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Spread: Spurs (-1.5)PAST EVENT
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Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5PAST EVENT
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Golden Knights vs. AvalanchePAST EVENT
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 74/92 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 84 | 75/88 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 83 | 85/76 90/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 74 | 54/97 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 71 | 72/79 50/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 23, 2026
Read full brief - Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? probability down 23.5pp on $0.9M of 24h volume.
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? shows a momentum pattern at 85% evidence — verify on the market.
- Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs resolves in 11h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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