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Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
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MARKET PULSE
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
80% 40.0pp
24h volume
$732.1K
Orrery Pulse22% current18-22% 7D range+2.5pp net move
29%24%20%16%12%
22%
May 2322%+2.5pp from start
May 23May 23May 23May 23May 23May 23May 23May 23
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23?UMA PENDING
High
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23?UMA PENDING
High
High
High
Houston Astros vs. Chicago CubsUMA PENDING
High
High
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5UMA PENDING
High
High
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-23?UMA PENDING
High
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24?UMA PENDING
High
High
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?UMA DISPUTED
Medium
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?UMA DISPUTED
Medium
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St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsPAST EVENT
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 91 | 95/89 96/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 89 | 95/93 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 88 | 95/86 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 86 | 95/81 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 86 | 90/89 80/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 23, 2026
Read full brief - Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays probability down 50.0pp on $0.8M of 24h volume.
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Canadiens vs. Hurricanes resolves in 2h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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RISK INCREASED (3)
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