Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
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5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
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Full research queue Resolves in 6h — verify the source
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MARKET PULSE
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest divergence observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
85% 6.0pp
24h volume
$1.0M
Orrery Pulse27% current26-28% 7D range-1.5pp net move
36%31%27%23%19%
27%
May 2327%-1.5pp from start
May 23May 23May 23May 23May 23May 23May 23May 23
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles AngelsUMA PENDING
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Spread: Spurs (-2.5)UMA PENDING
High
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona DiamondbacksUMA PENDING
High
Athletics vs. San Diego PadresUMA PENDING
High
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5UMA PENDING
High
Spread: Spurs (-1.5)UMA PENDING
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5UMA PENDING
High
High
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?UMA DISPUTED
High
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)UMA PENDING
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
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Medium
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Medium
Medium
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Medium
Medium
Medium
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 79/88 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 80 | 80/79 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 75 | 58/89 90/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 75 | 60/87 88/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 74 | 54/96 80/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 23, 2026
Read full brief - Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? probability up 44.0pp on $0.3M of 24h volume.
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? shows a divergence pattern at 80% evidence — verify on the market.
- Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs resolves in 6h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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