US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
5 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?
Resolves in 18h — verify the source
Verify
2LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner
Resolves in 2h — verify the source
Verify
3LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2
Resolves in 6h — verify the source
Verify
4LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2
Resolves in 4h — verify the source
Verify
5LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs
Resolves in 5h — verify the source
Verify
MARKET PULSE
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
74% 8.6pp
24h volume
$322.1K
Orrery Pulse74% current30-76% 7D range+29.8pp net move
84%68%53%38%22%
74%
May 3174%+29.8pp from start
May 24May 25May 26May 27May 28May 29May 30May 31
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?Top read
24h Δ -12.8pp, 1h Δ -1.5pp · Turnover 3.1× liquidity
2Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
24h Δ 8.6pp, 1h Δ 1.1pp · Turnover 3.8× liquidity
3Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
24h Δ -4.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 1.9× liquidity
4Open
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang
24h Δ 3.5pp, 1h Δ 6.5pp · Turnover 2.7× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-30?UMA PENDING
High
High
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-30?UMA PENDING
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30?UMA PENDING
High
Will EC Bahia win on 2026-05-30?UMA PENDING
High
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Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 95/85 90/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 88 | 90/82 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 80 | 73/93 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 74 | 72/84 60/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 71 | 52/89 80/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 31, 2026
Read full brief - Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? probability up 39.0pp on $1.0M of 24h volume.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner resolves in 2h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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