How do Polymarket markets resolve?
Polymarket markets resolve according to the market's written rules and stated resolution source. Many markets also pass through an optimistic oracle process before final settlement. Price can anticipate that outcome, but price is not the same as finality.
The practical rule is simple: read the market text first, identify the source, check oracle or settlement status, and only then treat the displayed probability as context.
Headline vs resolution rule
A headline compresses the question so humans can scan it. The resolution rule defines what counts. The difference can change the answer: official source versus media report, calendar-year data versus event date, regular time versus extra time, preliminary data versus revised data.
If the rule is vague, the market deserves a risk label even when traders appear confident.
What UMA changes
UMA's optimistic-oracle flow can include proposal, challenge, dispute, and finalization states. For a user, those states matter because a proposed answer can still be challenged.
Orrery treats non-final oracle states as resolution risk. This keeps expired or rail-pinned markets from looking more certain than they are.
Resolution verification checklist
A clean verification pass takes less than a minute. Open the market, read the rule, identify the source, check status, compare event siblings, and create an alert if final confirmation is still pending.
This process is especially important for markets near expiry. The closer the clock gets to settlement, the more the source matters.
- Is the source named and official?
- Is the relevant time zone clear?
- Is the market already closed, or only near a rail?
- Is UMA final, proposed, challenged, or disputed?
- Do sibling markets imply a contradictory reading?
FAQ
Is a 99 percent Polymarket price resolved?
No. It is market consensus. Final resolution depends on the written rules and settlement state.
Why do expired markets remain unresolved?
The event window may have ended, but final settlement can require an official source, oracle finalization, or dispute window.
What should I verify first?
Verify the named resolution source and whether the oracle or settlement state is final.