Direct answer
Prediction market alerting means notifying a user or system when a market crosses a probability threshold, moves unusually fast, reaches a resolution-risk state, receives large trades, or diverges from a comparable market on another venue.
Alert types that matter
The safest prediction-market workflow separates attention, evidence, source quality, and next action. A probability move can be important, but it is not useful until the market is liquid enough, the rule is clear enough, and the user knows what to verify next.
- Probability threshold crossed.
- Momentum or divergence observation fired.
- Resolution status changed or expiry approached.
- Large trade cluster appeared.
- Polymarket and Kalshi probability gap crossed a configured threshold.
What to verify before trusting the move
Good research tools keep the boring details visible. Expiry, resolution source, official status, spread, liquidity, and related markets often explain why a headline probability should be treated carefully.
- Is the alert based on fresh data?
- Does the payload include the exact trigger and timestamp?
- Is delivery local-only, email, webhook, or team-routed?
- Does the alert include a retry/audit trail for server delivery?
How Orrery handles it
Orrery separates local browser alert history from server email/webhook delivery. Pro and Team workflows can use signed webhooks, paired email identity, idempotency headers, and server audit history.
Orrery is not a broker and does not provide trade recommendations. It ranks research work, explains market structure, and keeps resolution rules visible so humans and agents can make better verification decisions.
FAQ
What is the most useful prediction-market alert?
The most useful alert depends on the workflow. For researchers, resolution-risk and watchlist delta alerts often matter more than raw price thresholds.
Why are webhooks paid features?
Durable webhook delivery requires server cron, retries, signatures, idempotency, and audit history. That infrastructure is valuable for teams and agents.
Should alerts say buy or sell?
No. Alerts should say what changed, why it fired, and what to verify next.