Index
Resolution Risk Index
Concentration of disputed UMA resolutions and tight-spread markets near expiry across every category. Higher = more settlement uncertainty in the pipeline.
Today
61/ 100
Across 16 live markets · 24h volume $11.8M
Move
86
Volume
15
Resolution
68
What's driving this
5Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-05-17?
SportsVol $592.4K79¢
+42.5Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?
TechVol $192.9K0¢
-7.2Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18?
CryptoVol $211.9K83¢
-6.8Iran closes its airspace by May 21?
GeopoliticsVol $268.6K14¢
+3.0Starmer out by May 19, 2026?
PoliticsVol $255.7K11¢
-2.1
How this score is built
score = 0.5 × 86 (move component) + 0.3 × 15 (volume component) + 0.2 × 68 (resolution-pressure component) = 61
Each axis is normalised against a hand-tuned ceiling so scores stay 0-100 and comparable across indexes. The page revalidates every 30 minutes from public Polymarket data — once a persistent snapshot store lands we'll add day-over-day deltas and an archive page.