UnclassifiedExpires May 10, 2026
Creator

Will Marco Penge finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic?

Probability

0¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-32.5pp

24h Vol

$15.5K

Liquidity

$4.6K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active · uma=proposed

Derived status (Orrery)

UMA PENDING

Reason

Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.

Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 10, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
Primary
pgatour.com
Link
pgatour.com
Type
Source not classified
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: proposed
  • Market expires May 10, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
May 4, 2026, 18:00May 8, 2026, 00:48
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-08T00-48Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 32pp over 24h

    Now 0¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 3.4× turnover

    $15.5k traded against $4.6k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 47h. UMA dispute is active.

  • 04
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $4.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 47 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 47.2h

    HIGH
  • 00:48Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 47h. UMA dispute is active.

    MEDIUM

Price movement

-32.5pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

Biggest hourly move: -50.0pp at 00:48 (to 0¢).

Show top 8 of 14 hourly moves
  • 00:48 · -50.0pp → 0¢
  • 23:00 · -46.3pp → 4¢
  • 22:00 · -49.5pp → 1¢
  • 12:00 · -49.5pp → 0¢
  • 11:00 · -49.6pp → 0¢
  • 10:00 · -46.9pp → 3¢
  • 08:00 · -47.4pp → 3¢
  • 06:00 · -48.5pp → 1¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

11
Same eventPGA Tour: ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic Top 10
Category · Other

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 10 at the 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic tournament, including ties. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If final results are not announced by May 16, 2026 at 8:00PM ET this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).

Why this category?

confidence: low

Category

Other

Source

Default fallback

Reason

No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Marco Penge finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic?"?

As of Fri, 08 May 2026 00:48:25 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -32.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 10, 2026 (2026-05-10T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.pgatour.com/.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.pgatour.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$15.5K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $15.8K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $4.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

16 wallets
Open on Polymarket