SportsExpires May 17, 2026
Creator

Will Francisco Bide finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 PGA Championship?

Probability

0¢

1h

-10.8pp

24h

-0.4pp

24h Vol

$600.00

Liquidity

$265.2K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active · uma=proposed

Derived status (Orrery)

UMA PENDING

Reason

Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.

Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 17, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
Primary
pgatour.com
Link
pgatour.com
Type
Source not classified
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: proposed
  • Market expires May 17, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
0¢
May 11, 2026, 17:00 UTCMay 16, 2026, 02:29 UTC
updated 02:29:12 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-16T02-29Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 22h. UMA dispute is active.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 22 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 00:00Scheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 21.5h

    HIGH
  • 02:29Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 22h. UMA dispute is active.

    MEDIUM

Price movement

-0.4pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

Biggest hourly move: -48.8pp at May 14, 05:00 UTC (to 1¢).

Show top 8 of 28 hourly moves
  • 11:00 · -46.0pp → 1¢
  • 10:00 · -47.0pp → 1¢
  • 08:00 · -48.0pp → 1¢
  • 07:00 · -47.0pp → 1¢
  • 03:00 · -40.5pp → 1¢
  • May 14, 09:00 UTC · -45.8pp → 4¢
  • May 14, 07:00 UTC · -48.8pp → 1¢
  • May 14, 05:00 UTC · -48.8pp → 1¢
updated 02:29:12 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 02:29:12 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventPGA Tour: PGA Championship Top 10
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 10 at the 2026 PGA Championship tournament, including ties. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If final results are not announced by May 23, 2026 at 8:00PM ET this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

pga championship

Reason

PGA Championship golf major — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Francisco Bide finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 PGA Championship?"?

As of Sat, 16 May 2026 02:29:12 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.4pp in the last 24 hours, -10.8pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 17, 2026 (2026-05-17T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.pgatour.com/.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.pgatour.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$600.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $729.80. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $265.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

7 wallets
Open on Polymarket